It’s not going well right now for the San Francisco Giants, as they go into today’s game on a 6-game losing streak and have two tough road series in the coming month before ending June against the Dodgers. We’re 62 games into the season, meaning there are 100 games remaining on their schedule. As I did after the first month of the season, here is some advice I can offer fans as a veteran blogger.
DO ignore that Yankees series — and that Phillies series
The Yankees are far superior to the Giants, a team that they’d only face in the postseason if the luck of the playoff format got them all the way to the World Series. And if they won the World Series, that would be a complete fluke of luck, too. The Phillies series, meanwhile, was a nice surprise, but it did flow from a Philadelphia squad that had struggled mightily at Oracle Park (2-16 since 2018 before their win in the series finale) despite being an obviously good to great team over the years.
It’s not so much that these were games where the Giants either played in over their heads or were simply outclassed, it’s that these are not teams that are their competition. These are division-leaders or, at the very least, teams competing for their divisions. You know, the real ones like the American League East, the National League East, or in the case of the Dodgers, the National League West. The Giants aren’t going to be one of those teams for years and years, or maybe never again in our lifetimes (to be clear: I’m very old, so maybe some of the younger readers might still see the tide turn). They are squarely fighting in the Wild Card division, a hive of scum and villainy if ever there was one.
It’s nice when the Giants beat one of these teams, but in a long season and short series, that’s bound to happen from time to time. It’s still the case that the Giants went 2-5 against the Phillies this season, and despite playing the Yankees close in some innings still went 0-3 against them. They’re 7-16 against teams with a .500 or better record, the third-worst mark in MLB behind the White Sox (6-33) and Angels (8-22).
DON’T forget that... it’s still early
Because, well, that’s simply the case. It is still early. There are ONE HUNDRED GAMES remaining. The Giants might not be that good of a team, but they’re without some pretty good players at the moment: LaMonte Wade Jr., any contributions from Robbie Ray and/or Alex Cobb, Blake Snell: Good Version, and Keaton Winn.
Now, I recognize that I listed many more pitchers than hitters here and the Giants haven’t actually been able to pull off our plan for them that developed in the offseason, which was, “In lieu of getting Ohtani or being a destination for marquee hitters, the Giants should become their 2010 version and double down on elite pitching.” They have so-so pitching in front of so-so defense all in service of a not-so-good lineup.
The only thing I can argue is this: last year, the Giants collapsed down the stretch. They were 61-49 on August 3rd, 18-34 the rest of the way. Through their final 62 games they were 25-37 after going 54-46 over their first 100. It’s not inconceivable that they could accomplish a similar flip this season. It’d have to start today, of course, and that seems unlikely, but this roster is projected to get healthier as the season goes on, adding some very good pieces. While LaMonte Wade Jr. alone shouldn’t be the key to the lineup, somebody else will need to step up — not just for a week, but for the rest of the season. It’s earlier enough where that could still happen.
Unlikely as it seems.
When will it stop being “still early?” Well, if you’re a member of the front office or a fan who only roots for the front office, the simple fact is that it never stops. Even a mathematical elimination in September would still be too early to say if this current roster construction failed, because a 1-season sample is too small to make any judgments. But most fans aren’t management defenders or invested in the machinations of number crunchers, they want results. I’ll give you two lines in the sand.
- My personal one is the Rickwood Field game versus the Cardinals on June 20th. I don’t mean a win in that game means the Giants are in good shape, I’m saying that 14 games from now will be enough time to have passed to stop saying “it’s still early,” regardless of that particular game’s outcome.
- Game 81 is the third game of a 4-game home series against the Cubs. Officially, the halfway point in the season. That is a reasonable place to stop “It’s still early,” because now everyone can say, “we’re halfway through the season.”
DO wonder if Bob Melvin, Ryan Christenson, Matt Williams, and Bryan Price are the right people for the job
The front office provides the data and maybe even the decision trees for the manager, but ultimately, bullpen management and lineup decisions are Bob Melvin’s discretion. Same with pitch game planning and defensive coaching, if not alignments. The Giants are
- Above average on offense (103 wRC+)
- Below average on defense (-3.1 Defensive Runs Above Average)
- Below average with pitching (4.49 team ERA — fifth-worst in MLB) — their 3.90 FIP is 14th
Pat Burrell’s department seems to be going well enough given the talent, but the Giants have had some notably sloppy games this season despite a fairly veteran roster. Part of the reason why the Giants’ pitching has been so bad is because of Blake Snell, but even in the bullpen split, they’re just middle of the pack (4.54 ERA - 25th / 3.84 FIP - 15th). One might argue, “Well, they’ve pitched a lot of bullpen innings,” which is true — their 247.2 IP is second behind the Brewers (256.1) — but they used the bullpen a lot last year and that group was simply better. Through 62 games in 2023, the Giants’ bullpen had pitched 241 innings (7th in MLB), had a 4.07 ERA (18th) and 3.95 FIP (13th), generating +1.4 fWAR in value (22nd). The Giants’ +0.7 bullpen fWAR through 62 games in 2024 is 20th.
I’ve thrown a lot of number at you that might muddy my point (especially with the rankings next to them), so I can illustrate my point best by using league stats. Through 62 games, the MLB average hitting line is .240/.310/.388. That’s a .698 OPS. Through 62 games last season, the average line was .247/.320/.407 (.727 OPS). The Giants did better against better hitting. Now, with hitting being a little worse all over the place, the Giants’ bullpen is worse.
Camilo Doval had brain farts plenty of times throughout Gabe Kapler’s tenure and Taylor Rogers struggled out of the gate last season. Bullpens are usually volatile by nature, and when you through in a 2-3 rotation spots in a constant state of flux when you more or less committed to fewer bullpen games in the offseason, it’s enough to say, “Well, this could be happening with any coaching group.” Still, you have to wonder what’s that extra special something Bob Melvin adds to the team as the season goes on. We know that he was brought in mainly to appease season ticketholders and the San Francisco Chronicle beat writers, but does that translate to a better team?
DON’T think about Blake Snell, Alex Cobb, and Robbie Ray
The team might argue that one, two, or all three of these guys will be the key to the Giants having a successful season and/or postseason run, but it’s June 5th, and the return dates for all three are up in the air. Just forget they’re on the team for the rest of June.
DO ignore all the numbers
There’s a strain of fandom that believes negative outcomes are small sample size noise while positive outcomes are a predictive trend. This veteran blogger says ignore them all.
When I said this last time around, I did so because we were dealing with a 30-game sample. I’m repeating this bit of wisdom but for a different reason: they’re a bummer. The team’s 103 wRC+ is good to see, but LaMonte Wade Jr.’s .896 OPS as such a load-bearing figure is upsetting. Somebody — multiple somebodies — have to play better. If not to their career averages or preseason projections (in the case of veterans like Chapman, Conforto, and Soler), then to their scouted ceilings as prospects.
Heliot Ramos seems to be pulling it off with his .839 OPS through 25 games and 102 plate appearances, but there are some underlying numbers (BAbip, strikeout rate) that are concerning — ignore them! Luis Matos has got to figure it out. Tyler Fitzgerald has to get his head on straight be a legitimate speed-power threat. Forget that Mike Yastrzemski has been mostly bad to this point and take his 3-run home run last night as a sign that good things are about to happen with him.
Definitely ignore the innings load Kyle Harrison, Jordan Hicks, and a lot of the bullpen has had thrust upon them. Ignore Luke Jackson’s 3.43 FIP and be alarmed whenever he’s put into the game when it’s under 5 runs in either direction.
The numbers can’t help you right now, only hope can.
DON’T worry about it
The Giants won’t win the World Series this year. One might argue that “just get into the postseason and anything can happen,” but when one does that they’re not advocating for their team, they’re advocating for the lottery or winning a raffle because they have a ticket. “It’s better to be lucky than good” is the ethos of every Wild Card hopeful, and the Giants are committed to the generational project of shifting the fan base from “Hey, we’re champions after winning three in five seasons” to “just get into the postseason and anything can happen.” That tweak of expectations is why you shouldn’t worry. Don’t become emotionally invested in the Powerball results if you can help it.
A positive step forward for the organization this season isn’t a grand playoff run, it’s a quick first round exit from the postseason. In theory, the Giants have a roster that’s capable of getting there. Whether that happens or not is 100% luck.
