Stewart Mandel’s college football bowl picks against the spread (2024)

Picking bowl games is an inherently futile exercise. Who wants to be there more? Which team spent the week doing too much partying? Which interim coaches are better prepared than others?

I have no idea, but let’s try anyway. (And here are Bruce’s picks.)

Bahamas: Buffalo (-6.5) vs. Charlotte, 2 p.m. ET Friday (ESPN)

Charlotte’s first bowl season under first-year coach Will Healy has been a fantastic story. Buffalo under future Hall of Fame coach Lance Leipold is here to ruin their vacation.Buffalo 31, Charlotte 21

Frisco: Utah State (-7) vs. Kent State, 7:30 p.m. ETFriday(ESPN2)

Utah State QB Jordan Love has already announced he’s turning pro after this game. He’s had a bit of a mixed-bag final season but has a chance to go out with a big game against an overmatched foe.Utah State 52, Kent State 24

New Mexico: San Diego State (-3.5) vs. Central Michigan, 2 p.m. ET Saturday (ESPN)

Only Clemson, Georgia and Ohio State allow fewer points per game than the Aztecs (12.8). They should be able to smother Jim McElwain’s upstart Chippewas.San Diego State 20, Central Michigan 16

Cure: Georgia Southern vs. Liberty (+5), 2:30 p.m. ET Saturday (CBSSN)

Georgia Southern is pretty good; it was the lone team to knock off Appalachian State. But Hugh Freeze will have some tricks up his sleeve for the Flames’ first bowl game.Liberty 35, Georgia Southern 31

Boca: SMU (-3) at FAU, 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday (ABC)

FAU played in its home-field bowl two years ago and destroyed a 7-6 Akron team 50-3. This time they’re facing a 10-2, Top 25-caliber foe without Lane Kiffin, who bolted right after the conference title game. Mustangs by a lot.SMU 48, FAU 27

Camellia: Arkansas State vs. FIU (+2.5), 5:30 p.m. ET Saturday (ESPN)

Butch Davis’ squad only managed to get six wins this year, but it did beat Miami. So everything else is gravy. Here’s guessing they make it seven.FIU 31, Arkansas State 24

Las Vegas: Boise State vs. Washington (-3.5), 7:30 p.m. ET Saturday (ABC)

If we’re sticking to Xs and Os, I’m taking a Boise team that just kept winning despite the fact it just kept losing quarterbacks. But c’mon, it’s Chris Petersen’s last game. The Huskies have got to send him out on top.Washington 26, Boise State 21

New Orleans: Appalachian State (-16) vs. UAB, 9 p.m. ET Saturday (ESPN)

I love the New Orleans Bowl pitting the Sun Belt champ against Conference USA’s runner-up. However, in this case the Sun Belt champ is a legit Top 25 team that beat two Power 5 foes while UAB lost its conference title game 49-6.Appalachian State 52, UAB 24

Gasparilla: UCF vs. Marshall (+17.5), 2:30 p.m. ET Dec. 23 (ESPN)

UCF returned to earth a little bit in Josh Heupel’s second season, but even then it suffered three road losses all by three points or less. It seems more likely than not that Doc Holliday’s 6-0 bowl record at Marshall will soon be 6-1.UCF 38, Marshall 24

Hawaii: BYU at Hawaii (+2), 8 p.m. ET Dec. 24 (ESPN)

It’s a complete toss-up. Hawaii is 4-4 all-time in the Hawaii Bowl. BYU has won its last two games played at Aloha Stadium. But Mountain West coach of the year Nick Rolovich leads Hawaii to its 10th win.Hawaii 41, BYU 38

Independence: Miami (-6) vs. Louisiana Tech, 4 p.m. ET Dec. 26 (ESPN)

Manny Diaz hasn’t done much this season to inspire confidence in the 6-6 ’Canes as they play out the string. But they’ve got some notable seniors who are going to want to go out on a high note.Miami 24, Louisiana Tech 17

Quick Lane: Pittsburgh (-11) vs. Eastern Michigan, 8 p.m. ET Dec. 26 (ESPN)

This may very well be one of the dreariest bowl matchups I’ve ever seen created. Pitt should cruise unless the Panthers are too depressed from spending Christmas at the Quick Lane Bowl.Pittsburgh 35, Eastern Michigan 17

Military: Temple vs. North Carolina (-4.5), Noon ET Dec. 27 (ESPN)

Everything’s coming up Mack Brown right now, between getting the Tar Heels bowl eligible for the first time in four years to signing the school’s highest-ranked recruiting class in a decade. Sam Howell for the win.North Carolina 30, Temple 14

Pinstripe: Wake Forest (+4.5) vs. Michigan State, 3:20 p.m. ET Dec. 27 (ESPN)

Wake, 7-1 at one point, is limping to the finish a bit after losing star WR Sage Surratt for the season and losing three of its last four games. And now QB Jamie Newman’s health is in question. Could this be another 7-6 Michigan State bowl?Michigan State 20, Wake Forest 17

Texas: Oklahoma State vs. Texas A&M (-7), 6:45 p.m. ET Dec. 27 (ESPN)

Texas A&M beat seven teams it should have and lost to all five highly ranked opponents it faced. Oklahoma State, whose offense has struggled since losing QB Spencer Sanders, qualifies as someone the Aggies should beat.Texas A&M 33, Oklahoma State 24

Holiday: Iowa (-2.5) vs. USC, 8 p.m. ET Dec. 27 (FS1)

QB Kedon Slovis and his receivers will make some big plays even against a very good Hawkeyes defense. But this is one of the sport’s most disciplined teams (Iowa) against one of its absolute least disciplined teams (USC). Iowa could feast on mistakes.Iowa 31, USC 27

Cheez-It: Air Force (-3) vs. Washington State, 10:15 p.m. ET Dec. 27 (ESPN)

Air Force is pretty good, but also, Mike Leach is 1-8 against the spread in his last nine bowl games, per ESPN’s Chris Fallica. One could easily see the Cougs laying an egg here.Air Force 41, Washington State 30

Camping World: Notre Dame vs. Iowa State (+3.5), Noon ET Dec. 28 (ABC)

I’m of the belief the 10-2 Irish, sporting three Top 25 wins, should have been ranked higher by the Playoff selection committee. I’m also of the belief that Matt Campbell’s Cyclones will be far more motivated for this bowl than a Notre Dame team that tasted the Playoff last season.Iowa State 24, Notre Dame 20

Cotton: Penn State (-7) vs. Memphis, Noon ET Dec. 28 (ESPN)

Going back to the BCS, non-power conference teams are 6-4 against power-conference teams, presumably in part because it’s David’s Super Bowl and Goliath’s disappointment bowl. And yet I can’t bring myself to pick the upset.Penn State 31, Memphis 21

Peach Semifinal: No. 1 LSU (-13.5) vs. No. 4 Oklahoma, 4 p.m. ET Dec. 28 (ESPN)

I did not like Oklahoma’s chances even before losing top pass-rusher Ronnie Perkins to suspension right before facing the sport’s scariest passing offense. Unless he has a post-banquet circuit hangover, Joe Burrow and his receivers should be able to do their usual damage, while a healthy Grant Delpit and the LSU defense keep Sooners QB Jalen Hurts from gashing them on the ground.LSU 41, Oklahoma 27

Fiesta Semifinal: No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Clemson (-2), 8 p.m. ET Dec. 28 (ESPN)

This is truly a coin flip game between two teams with no apparent weaknesses. Both defenses have been dominant all season, but it’s unlikely Ohio State is going to shut down Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne, nor will Clemson shut down Justin Fields and J.K. Dobbins. So I’ll hedge on the side of the two-time national championship coach, Dabo Swinney, and his renowned defensive coordinator Brent Venables.Clemson 34, Ohio State 31

First Responder: Western Kentucky (-4) vs. Western Michigan, 12:30 p.m. ET Dec. 30 (ESPN)

First-year coach Tyson Helton did a nice job this season lifting the Hilltoppers from a rock-bottom 3-9 season to an 8-4 campaign that included a 45-19 rout of Arkansas. Western Michigan may be a tougher test than that, though.Western Kentucky 40, Western Michigan 27

Music City: Louisville (+4) vs. Mississippi State, 4 p.m. ET Dec. 30 (ESPN)

Louisville far exceeded expectations in Scott Satterfield’s first season but ended on a sour note, losing 45-13 to Kentucky. The Cards erase that taste by beating a Bulldogs team that beat just one SEC foe with a winning record.Louisville 26, Mississippi State 22

Redbox: Cal vs. Illinois (+6.5), 4 p.m. ET Dec. 30 (FOX)

Good news, Cal fans: QB Chase Garbers is healthy, which likely assures this will not be another Cheez-It-Bowl debacle for the Bears’ offense. Also, you don’t need a flight or hotel to attend your team’s bowl game.Cal 23, Illinois 17

Orange: Florida (-14.5) vs. Virginia, 8 p.m. ET Dec. 30 (ESPN)

I thought Virginia would cover a 29-point spread against Clemson. Instead the Cavs lost 62-17. Florida is not Clemson by any means, but it still holds a considerable talent advantage.Florida 35, Virginia 20

Belk: Virginia Tech (-2.5) vs. Kentucky, Noon ET Dec. 31 (ESPN)

One last time, Kentucky will ride its one-man wrecking machine, Lynn Bowden. Though the receiver-turned-QB has done wonders, a one-dimensional offense might not get very far against Bud Foster’s defense.Virginia Tech 27, Kentucky 20

Sun: Arizona State vs. Florida State (+4.5), 2 p.m. ET Dec. 31 (CBS)

Arizona State has been all over the map this season, beating Oregon and Michigan State but also losing to three sub-.500 opponents. Seems like a good spot for an upset.Florida State 33, Arizona State 30

Liberty: Navy vs. Kansas State (+2.5), 3:45 p.m. ET Dec. 31 (ESPN)

This is a weird situation where one team has been off for two weeks longer than the other. Who knows how that impacts preparation. But Navy’s lone Power 5 matchup this season was a 52-20 Notre Dame rout.Kansas State 36, Navy 27

Arizona: Georgia State (+7) vs. Wyoming, 4:30 p.m. ET Dec. 31 (CBSSN)

I love that two of Week 1’s Group of 5 darlings, Georgia State (which beat Tennessee) and Wyoming (which clobbered Missouri), are meeting up at the end of the year.Wyoming 28, Georgia State 24

Alamo: Utah vs. Texas (+7), 7:30 p.m. ET Dec. 31 (ESPN)

Kyle Whittingham has a remarkable 10-2 bowl record, but he’s never faced circ*mstances quite like this one where his team fell from the brink of the Playoff to the Alamo Bowl with one loss. Texas can brighten a disappointing season.Texas 27, Utah 24

Citrus: Alabama (-7) vs. Michigan, 1 p.m. ET Jan. 1 (ABC)

Michigan’s best hope is that Alabama treats the Citrus Bowl like this is a Week 2 game against New Mexico State. The fact that all of the Tide’s draft-eligible stars (Jerry Jeudy, DeVonta Smith, Najee Harris) are thus far planning to play suggests they are in fact focused on the game. Which … yikes.Alabama 45, Michigan 17

Outback: Auburn (-7) vs. Minnesota, 1 p.m. ET Jan. 1 (ESPN)

Also not opting to skip the bowl: Auburn star DT Derrick Brown. He and the Tigers’ defense could limit Tanner Morgan and the Gophers offense much like Iowa and Wisconsin did down the stretch.Auburn 27, Minnesota 14

Rose: Oregon vs. Wisconsin (-2.5), 5 p.m. ET Jan. 1 (ESPN)

If Oregon plays the way it did in the Pac-12 title game against Utah, that would be trouble for a similarly-built Wisconsin team. More likely, the Ducks offense comes back to earth a bit against a tough Badgers defense. And I could see Wisconsin star RB Jonathan Taylor putting on a showcase performance.Wisconsin 27, Oregon 23

Sugar: Georgia vs. Baylor (+7), 8:45 p.m. ET Jan. 1 (ESPN)

This could be a miserable game. Georgia’s offense was a mess even before both its starting tackles bolted for the draft. But the Dawgs’ defense is going to come out angry after the SEC title game and could suffocate the Bears.Georgia 17, Baylor 12

Birmingham: Cincinnati (-7) vs. Boston College, 3 p.m. ET Jan. 2 (ESPN)

Cincinnati saw its New Year’s Six hopes slip away with back-to-back losses to Memphis. Look for Luke Fickell’s team to take out its frustrations against a 6-6 ACC team.Cincinnati 34, Boston College 20

Gator: Indiana vs. Tennessee (-1.5), 7 p.m. ET Jan. 2 (ESPN)

Indiana had the better season, but Tennessee is the more talented team. The Vols are also a young team that seemed to get better with more experience and will benefit from the extra practices.Tennessee 24, Indiana 17

Idaho Potato: Nevada vs. Ohio (-7.5), 3:30 p.m. ET Jan. 3 (ESPN)

Vegas seems to think the Bobcats are considerably better than the Wolf Pack, and I’m just going to trust their Potato Bowl expertise over mine.Ohio 31, Nevada 20

Armed Forces: Southern Miss vs. Tulane (-7), 11:30 a.m. ET Jan. 4 (ESPN)

Another year of Willie Fritz job rumors, another year back at Tulane. He’s got some seniors like WR Jalen McClesky looking to put something on tape for the scouts.Tulane 35, Southern Miss 24

LendingTree: Louisiana Lafayette (-14) vs. Miami (Ohio), 7:30 p.m. ET Jan. 6 (ESPN)

Billy Napier’s Ragin Cajuns are pretty darn good. They went 10-3, losing only to Mississippi State and Appalachian State (twice). The MAC champion Redhawks may be in over their heads.Louisiana Lafayette 45, Miami (Ohio) 25

National Championship: LSU vs. Clemson, 8 p.m. ET Jan. 13 (ESPN)

If my semifinal predictions hold true, Clemson will take a 29-game winning streak to New Orleans, while LSU will play for the national title for the first time since 2011. Advantage Clemson. But this just feels like it’s meant to be this year for Ed Orgeron’s program. All three of the school’s national championship seasons ended in New Orleans, and none of those teams had a QB like Joe Burreaux. LSU 27, Clemson 24

Last week: 9-2 straight up, 5-6 ATS

Season: 108-57 straight up, 78-82-5 ATS

(Photo of Wisconsin’s Jonathan Taylor: Justin Casterline / Getty Images)