Last week, I figured one of Army-Michigan and Cincinnati-Ohio State would be a blowout and the other an upset scare. Unfortunately for my record against the spread, I got them reversed.
Here’s to a more prophetic Week 3. (And here are Bruce’s picks.)
North Carolina at Wake Forest (-3), 6 p.m. ET Friday, ESPN
I’ve incorrectly picked against Mack Brown’s Tar Heels each of the past two weeks. Will the third time be the charm? UNC’s defense has performed surprisingly well, but I worry whether that can continue against a Wake offense that boasts two receivers, Scotty Washington and Sage Surratt, averaging 100 yards. Wake Forest 37, North Carolina 33
Pittsburgh at No. 13 Penn State (-17), Noon ET Saturday, ABC
Pitt’s been tough to read so far. QB Kenny Pickett couldn’t have looked much worse in a 30-14 loss to Virginia but couldn’t have looked much better in a 20-10 win against Ohio. But as we know, Penn State’s defense is a lot closer to Virginia’s (which had four sacks) than Ohio’s, which could mean a long day for the Panthers. Penn State 35, Pittsburgh 14
Stanford at No. 17 UCF (-7.5), 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday, ESPN
Stanford’s defensive performance against USC was not exactly encouraging in advance of its trip to Orlando. The Cardinal tried and tried but could rarely get pressure on Trojans QB Kedon Slovis. The Knights, with their similarly fast-paced offense and wealth of playmakers, should have success moving the ball. UCF 40, Stanford 28
No. 2 Alabama (-25.5) at South Carolina, 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday, CBS
With Tua Tagovailoa, no spread is too big for the Tide to cover. But it will be interesting to see what impact freshman QB Ryan Hilinski has for South Carolina in his first SEC start. He helped lead the Gameco*cks to a school-record 775 yards against Charleston Southern. But of course, ’Bama is not Charleston Southern. Alabama 49, South Carolina 20
No. 24 USC (-4) at BYU, 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday, ABC
Don’t be fooled by BYU’s miraculous win at Tennessee — in two games against Power 5 foes, the Cougars have scored a combined two touchdowns in regulation. That does not bode well against a USC defense that’s been uneven but mostly respectable. And I don’t expect QB Kedon Slovis to be fazed on the road. USC 30, BYU 17
Arizona State at No. 18 Michigan State (-14), 4 p.m. ET Saturday, FOX
Breaking news: The Spartans may finally have an offense. More specifically, redshirt freshman RB Elijah Collins, who went for 192 yards on 17 carries in last week’s 51-17 rout of Western Michigan. ASU has its own star running back Eno Benjamin, but he’s been limited so far by a badly struggling offensive line. Michigan State 24, Arizona State 7
No. 19 Iowa at Iowa State (+2.5), 4 p.m. ET Saturday, FS1
I have no idea who to pick! Iowa State has a history of pulling Cy-Hawk upsets, but the Cyclones needed triple-OT to survive Northern Iowa, while the Hawkeyes cruised against Miami of Ohio and Rutgers. But both teams’ defenses are stingy. One turnover or trick play could be the difference. So I’ll ride with the home team. Iowa State 23, Iowa 20
No. 9 Florida at Kentucky (+8), 7 p.m. ET Saturday, ESPN
Tough break for Kentucky, losing experienced QB Terry Wilson. The Wildcats now hand the reins to former Troy starter Sawyer Smith. They’ve got good pieces around him, most notably WR Lynn Bowden Jr., and by no means is this team without hope. But Smith’s first start against Florida’s defense could be rough. Florida 26, Kentucky 20
No. 1 Clemson at Syracuse (+27.5), 7:30 p.m. ET Saturday, ABC
Syracuse is going to play better than it did against Maryland, and Clemson could suffer a little bit of a letdown post-Texas A&M. (Though the Tigers surely know by now the perils of the Carrier Dome.) But if the Orange defense couldn’t stop Terps QB Josh Jackson, I’m not sure what hope they have against Trevor Lawrence. Clemson 38, Syracuse 20
Florida State at No. 25 Virginia (-7), 7:30 p.m. ET Saturday, ACC
Never imagined I’d see Florida State as a touchdown underdog at Virginia. And suffice to say this is a must-win game for the ’Noles. But dangerous Cavs QB Bryce Perkins has got to be foaming at the mouth after watching tape of FSU’s second-half defense against Boise State and Louisiana Monroe. The ’Hoos get it done. Virginia 35, Florida State 24
This week’s Upset Special: Kansas State (+7.5) at Mississippi State, Noon ET Saturday, ESPN
I fully admit this one might blow up in my face. But I like what Chris Klieman is doing so far at K-State. The Wildcats, as they often did under Bill Snyder, have incorporated some transfers who seem to be sparking their offense. Mississippi State’s D isn’t what it was last year, and QB Tommy Stevens is banged up. Kansas State 34, Mississippi State 30
Last week: 6-5 straight up, 4-6-1 ATS
Season: 13-9, 10-10-2
(Photo: Scott Taetsch / Getty Images)
Stewart Mandel is editor-in-chief of The Athletic's college football coverage. He has been a national college football writer for two decades with Sports Illustrated and Fox Sports. He co-hosts "The Audible" podcast with Bruce Feldman. Follow Stewart on Twitter @slmandel
